Can you trust the political polls you see in the news?
After nearly 31 years of covering politics on television, Greta says she wanted to better understand how election polls are built, why respected surveys sometimes miss by wide margins and what reporters should tell viewers before repeating a headline number.
Veteran political pollster John McLaughlin joins Greta to pull back the curtain on the polling industry.
He explains:
• Why polling is still an inexact science
• The critical difference between adults, registered voters and likely voters
• How sample selection, demographic weighting and question wording can shape results
• Why primaries and midterm elections are especially difficult to measure
• How campaigns use internal polls to allocate money, travel and advertising
• How late-breaking stories can rapidly move voters
• What journalists and voters should examine before trusting a survey
McLaughlin also offers his perspective on several controversial polling misses and shares stories from decades of advising major political campaigns, including his work with President Donald Trump.
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CHAPTERS
0:35 Greta’s personal polling revelation
1:57 John McLaughlin: Polling is an inexact science
5:38 The Iowa poll and allegations of deliberate bias
8:29 Adults versus likely voters
12:03 How turnout models affect election polls
17:42 Where bias can enter a polling sample
21:30 Paramount+ break
21:59 Sample sizes and battleground-state polling
24:51 How frequently campaigns conduct internal polls
26:31 Late-breaking stories and sudden polling shifts
29:12 Favorability and direction-of-the-country surveys
30:37 How polling methods have changed
32:21 How journalists should responsibly report polls
34:28 Polling in Israel and other democracies
36:57 Trump stories and polling anecdotes
39:55 Closing and subscription information
Today’s podcast is sponsored by :
PARAMOUNT PLUS – Don’t Miss “Lioness” – all episodes now streaming on https://www.paramountplus.com/
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