From Kim Iskyan, Editor, True Wealth Asia:

What event is most likely to cause a financial crisis in Asia in the months ahead? a) collapse of the Chinese real estate market, b) a major drop in the value of the Chinese yuan, c) a Japanese debt crash, d) war over South China Sea islands, or e) none of the above.

If you’re familiar with the Black Swan theory, you would have answered “e) none of the above.” And you’d probably be right.

A “Black Swan” event is an event that is nearly impossible to predict, and which has a massive impact on markets. The term was created by the statistician and author Nassim Taleb, who wrote a book by that name in 2007.

Taleb notes that most of the methods used to predict what will happen in markets rely on what’s happened in the past. But since the past doesn’t…